# Current planning assumptions

The final deck uses a $90 basket, $63 landed cost, 5% returns, 0.3% lost disputes, $6 shipping, $8 marketing and a 2.9% + $0.30 card fee. These are assumptions, not supplier quotes.

1P contribution: $7.675 ($7.68 rounded). 391 monthly orders cover $3,000 fixed cost. Most we can spend to win an order: $15.68, before any fixed cost.

3P commission: 6% = assumed flat marketplace fee. $5.40 fee; $5.11 after refunds; −$2.91 card fee; −$0.22 return/dispute losses; −$8.00 marketing; −$6.02 result. A 3P order with $8 marketing breaks even only at about 13% commission.

Returns hurdles use 7.675 / (7.675 − added cost) − 1: $0.60 → 8.48%; $0.35 → 4.78%; $2.50 → 48.3%. A 2.00% conversion rate would need to reach about 2.17% for sealed returns.